Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Unique Economic Indicators

This is a paper I did for Economic Development of Asia for Colin White. Kinda gives a scant overview of conditions of the countries in regards to economic indicators I chose.
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Introduction
In this paper I will go over my experiences in each individual country and try to correlate the individual indicators that I chose in my previous with their factors in the respective countries.

Indicators
To recap, here are the unique indicators not in any sequential importance:
1.      The penetration of authentic Western brands in retail.
a.      The massive quantities of knockoffs versus limited number of authentic indicate a very poor population that is conniving towards upward economic mobility via fake brand names. Vice versa an absolute lack of knockoffs and all items are conceived “real” indicate a developed economic system (also indicating enforcement of intellectual and property rights)
2.      Drivable/ paved highways with actual cars on them.
a.      Paved roads indicate economic progress but is not all inconclusive. The important factor is what types of cars populate the roads. Mass taxis indicate lower ownership of cars, while many personal cars indicate higher material wealth and prosperity.
b.      Brand of cars are also an indicator, as wealthier luxury brands (BMW, Mercedes, Audi) indicate more disposable wealth and a stronger economy.
c.      An addendum is the state of mass transit; only developed nations can afford decently working mass transit.
3.      A sense of future well-being and prosperity amongst the populace.
a.      Simply put, a foreboding feeling for the future by the population translates to a foreboding future for economic development.
4.      Locals don’t try to actively avoid the police.
a.      Well developed nations don’t have an overtly corrupt police force. The police are also actually helpful and do real policing.
5.      The availability of uncensored internet.
a.      Freedom on the World Wide Web is an indication of freedom of information and thus transparency in dealings, business economic and otherwise.

Canada
Given Canada’s entanglement with American culture and economic practices, I feel that no detailed comparison is necessary; it is a western nation in the sense of economic development.

Spain
Spain, like Canada, needs no elaboration. It is western in all senses.

Morocco
Morocco was our first real non Western nation. Morocco’s proximity to Spain gives it a distinct flavor different than the rest of the Arabic world (their king even wears a western business suit in official pictures). Given any experience in the souks, 100% of the clothing is fake articles of renowned brands like D&G, Nike, Gucci, etc. There were, however, official brand stores like Levi’s and the ever omnipresent McDonald’s, although both were in limited quantities and usually placed in the richest parts of town. Roads were paved, but not very well developed at all; most automobiles on the street were poorly driven taxis.  Mass transit was nonexistent; the train from Casablanca to Marrakech hardly counts in efficiency. The people’s view towards the government was of muted deference given the king’s absolute authority. Things are, however, looking up economically with Morocco’s overtures to build closer ties to western economies and attract capital. I had limited dealings with the police, but locals say there is a level of corruption. The internet I used wasn’t censored, but I only used Google and Facebook; I’ve been informed that the government does indeed censor “immoral” sites.

Ghana
Ghana’s authentic brand experience, much like Morocco, was limited to McDonald’s. I didn’t have much experience with the Ghanaian shopping experience so I can’t differentiate their level of knockoffs, but it should be noted there was a strong culture of local clothing as well as a mad quantity of Obama enshrined in clothing. Ghanaian roads were paved, with an eclectic mix of personal cars and taxis; I saw a few BMWs and Audis around. The condition of roads deteriorated as you moved into the country, the highway system was nonexistent with only two lane roads being the roads between cities. Ghanaians are very proud of their democratic heritage as well as Obama’s recent visit, thus they have a very healthy outlook for the future; this is reinforced by a recent string of investments by mining companies as well as GE looking to develop the country with a $400 million investment. The police are utterly corrupt with bribes rampant; I remember being stopped at least six times on my way to El Mina in a cab so the police could take bribes from our cabbie because he was carrying foreigners. Internet was choppy in Ghana, but on the whole it was relatively uncensored.

South Africa
South Africa is a land of contrasts. The “white” part is entirely westernized, while the “black” part has all the non qualities of the indicators I’ve listed. The black townships are not penetrated by authentic Western retail brands, nor do they have any real roads in the townships (at least in the Khayelitsha township where I visited). Outlook is bleak in the townships with some places peaking 50% chronic unemployment. Policing is nonexistent in townships, and some police forces still hold racist tendencies. I had no experience with internet in the townships, but given that most of them don’t even have “official” power connections it wouldn’t be surprising to expect a lack of internet.

Mauritius
Mauritius is almost up to western economic development in every sense, except for authentic Western brands. Of course there were McDonald’s there, but there were also some knockoffs I found in the market in Port Louis. The resort area of Flic en Flac could be comparable to Hawaii or other resort locations. Otherwise, there wouldn’t be much to distinguish Mauritius from a developed nation.

India
India is a nation of massive contrasts. On one hand, in the bustling cities such as Delhi or Bombay it feels very developed and very modern with all of the ritz and glamour expected. The roads are there, the Louis Vuittons are there as well as indigenous brands, the shiny new BMWs are there, the job opportunities are there, and so is the free internet. One thing all of India has in common is rife corruption, police and otherwise. On the flipside, there’s poor India with the masses huddled together and yearning for opportunity. This side lacks everything the up and coming economic movers have. India is simply developing on a massive scale. However, the future is bright given recent western capital investments in Indian companies and infrastructure, as well as some recent world class Indian companies taking the stage.

Vietnam
The children of the dragon have come a long way since the post-Vietnam War era and communism. I was there about ten years ago. Even though I was only in my young teens then I still remember what it was like. There are many knockoff brands in the open air markets (as many as Morocco) but there are also an increased number of authentic Western stores and local brands (some of which cost as much as their western counterparts!). There are significantly better paved roads now, the government has even taken the initiative to widen the many alleyways in residential areas, my aunts’ houses have had to follow this law and decrease their front parts. The economy has been growing for the past decade and the general feeling amongst my family there is that there is a future and opportunity being created for them, although unemployment still poses a problem. Police are still corrupt but there is an ongoing trend by the central government to crack down on corruption. The internet I used was for the most apart unobtrusive, however there are still some sites that are deemed subversive by the government and thus blocked.

Hong Kong
Another western nation, with the notable exception of ten thousand dollar watch shop stores next to cellphone shops that sell knockoff Iphone Airs.

China
China, like India, is developing in every sense of the word. The similarities are all too striking, with the coastal regions being the wealthy powerhouses while the interior is still very poor. China on the whole is more economically developed than India and is in a better position to take advantage of its natural resources and strengths. The authoritative government can push down policy quicker than democratic India. China also has a very censored internet, with Facebook still blocked from the previous Tibetan and Uighur riots. Certain parts of Shanghai looked and felt like any western city. China may still be developing but soon it will become the most developed.

Japan
Japan is a developed nation, possibly more westernized than most western nations in the sense that their economy is very stable and prices are through the roof. Japan has all the positives of the indicators with no negatives (possibly except for the extremely high price levels).

Conclusion
These are my observations from the voyage so far. Some are more astute than others given the varying length of time and degree of participation I had in each country. As country count increased my eyes became more open to the intricacies of the economies.

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